Anatoly Levenchuk (ailev) wrote,
Anatoly Levenchuk
ailev

Сайтопорталостроительные и прочие веб-предсказания на 2005

Nick Finck http://www.digital-web.com/news/2004/12/ten_things_your_web_sites_should_be_doing/
  • Offering regularly updated information (blogs, CMSs, etc.)

  • Increased efficiency in news and information distribution (RSS, ATOM, etc.)

  • Alternative methods of information distribution (email newsletters, RSS, del.icio.us, etc.)

  • Enhanced notification and announcement systems (pings, email alerts, etc.)

  • A place for your site's users to offer feedback and input (blog comments, forums, etc.)

  • Improved performance and code optimization (CSS, XHTML, etc.)

  • Multiple ways to access information (multi-faceted navigation, folksonomies, etc.)

  • Intelligent system to system communication (XML, SOAP, etc.)

  • Collaborative communication and documentation (Wikis, blogs, etc.)

  • On-demand support feedback (user-driven FAQs, click-to-chat, etc.)

Gerry McGovern http://www.gerrymcgovern.com/nt/2005/nt_2005_01_10_predictions-2005.htm
  • The editor—the person who knows the difference between good and bad content—will get increasing authority for the website.

  • Websites will get smaller, as editors begin to get rid of the large quantities of out-of-date content that have built up over the years.

  • Websites will get simpler as complexity is hidden, and a set of straightforward choices are presented to the impatient scan reader.

  • Senior management will get more involved in developing web strategy.

  • Some hard questions will be asked as to the value websites are delivering in relation to the money that is being spent on them.

  • The importance of writing quality web content will be recognized, but the people who write quality web content will still not get due reward.

  • As the attention span shortens, so too will content. It will become more and more difficult to get anyone to read anything over 500 words.

  • As the need to get people to the right content as quickly as possible increases, the importance of writing quality metadata will grow.

  • Website design will continue to standardize. As websites focus more on navigation, the principle of reducing uncertainty and increasing familiarity will become more important.

  • Things won't change dramatically in 2005. The Web has begun to mature, and certainly when it comes to text-based content, it will be about getting the basics right.

Michael Gartenberg http://www.computerworld.com/softwaretopics/software/story/0,10801,98165,00.html

  • Longhorn is no longer the answer (or even the question). There was too much Longhorn hype in the past year and not enough details. Look for Microsoft to retreat from the "It will be fixed/added in Longhorn" mantra and make more attempts to keep the focus on Windows XP.

  • PDAs will become passe. Disconnected ones, that is. Over time, the real action will be moving core PDA functionality, centered on personal information management, to other devices such as cell phones. This will cause major IT headaches, since few cell phones are controlled by IT these days.

  • More people will lose their jobs over their weblogs. It's happened already, and it will happen again. If you're posting about your job or employer without consent, you're taking a lot of risk with your future.

  • But more corporations will create official blogs. Corporations have seen the weblog light, and blogs will become common for business use. Unfortunately, far too many of these efforts will just be marketing fluff disguised as weblogs.

  • Security FUD will drive IT policy. With all the fear about people using iPods and flash memory devices to walk off with corporate data, IT will be forced to take more Draconian measures against users. Expect to see rigid policies about commingling personal and business technologies, and bans on USB flash disks and the like.

  • Wi-Fi will be ubiquitous, but not in the workplace. Wi-Fi is readily available in public places such as coffee shops, airports and hotels. IT shops, however, will slow deployments a bit over fears of security. End users will take matters into their own hands, so expect to see lots of ad hoc networks springing up.

  • VoIP will be a mainstream technology for business users. Voice over IP is perhaps the hottest technology in the telecommunications industry today. VoIP-based services will grow even more as a mainstream technology for business use. Expect a lot of competition for the trillions of minutes and billions of dollars' worth of voice calls that business users make each year.

  • Wireless VoIP will still be niche. The hype and press around voice over wireless LANs was significant in 2004. Expect more hype and some pilot programs, but not large growth for VoWLAN.

  • Linux will be adopted in greater numbers by IT, but desktop Linux will not. Linux is already a mainstream server solution for many IT shops. That success won't travel over to the desktop, however. Too much fragmentation, combined with a lack of critical desktop applications and increasing dependence on the Windows platform, will prevent desktop Linux adoption from increasing significantly.

  • Moore's Law will still be irrelevant. Just as in 2004, speed increases are nice, but they will remain hard to justify for most business users, for whom "fast" was "fast enough" around 1999. The most relevant market for fast PCs will be consumers who need all the speed they can get in their digital homes for entertainment.
John batelle http://battellemedia.com/archives/001151.php

  • We will have a goat rodeo of sorts in the blogging/micropublishing/RSS world as commercial interests push into what many consider a "pure medium." I've seen this movie before, and it ends OK. But it's important that the debate be full throated, and so far it looks to be shaping up that way. I'm already seeing these forces at work over at Boing Boing, and I am sure they will continue. We'll all work on figuring out ways to stick to our principles and get paid at the same time, however, I expect that things might get more contentious before they get better, and 2005 may be a more fractious year in the blogosphere as we evolve through this process.

  • Along those lines, things will not go as swimmingly as we'd like with regard to "monetization." As the majors get into the space and start throwing around their weight and lucre, some folks will make bad decisions, and others will freeze and make no decisions at all. It will get harder to innovate before it gets easier. We'll all be surprised by the lack of what we consider "progress" in the RSS/Blogging world, and expectations of major publishing revenues will not materialize as quickly as perhaps we think they should. However, we'll in fact be making huge strides in understanding the path forward, it just won't seem like it. By the end of the year, the world will begin to realize that "blogs" are in fact an extraordinarily heterogeneous ecosystem comprised of scores, if not hundreds, of different "types" of sites.

  • There will be two to five major new sites that emerge from "nowhere" to become major cultural influencers along the lines of the political bloggers of 2004. One of them will be sold to a major publisher/aggregator for what seems like a large sum of money, driving the abovementioned #2 and #1.

  • Meanwhile, the long tail will become the talk of the "old line" media world. To capture some of that value, we'll see a slew of deals and new publishing projects from the established brands that seek to capture the idea of community journalism, affiliate commerce sales, and collaborative content creation.

  • Google will do something major with Blogger. I really have no idea what, but it's overdue. Six Apart will grow quickly but face a crisis in its implementation as its core users demand more features that are "unbloglike" like customer databases and robust publishing support tools. This (and other things) may drive Six Apart or one of its competitors into the arms of Yahoo or AOL or even - gasp - Quark or Adobe or Marcomedia.

  • Ask will continue to consolidate traffic by buying smaller search sites.

  • Yahoo and Google will both test systems that combine local merchant inventory information with search, so that merchants can use search as a direct sales channel. By the end of the year, there will be no question that the search companies are in direct competition with the ecommerce companies, but it won't matter - there's room for them all. Paul Ford will continue to get droves of readers to his related, and very prescient, three year old post on how Google takes over the world.

  • Microsoft will lose search share before they gain it back later in the year when the integration of MSN search starts to scale with new versions of Office and IE . Net net, however, MSFT will gain total in total search sessions from last year, and its technology will get much, much better.

  • Firefox will near 15% of total browser share. Firefox faithful will wonder why it's not much much higher. But MSFT will release a very good upgrade of IE, see #8.

  • A third party platform player with major economies of scale (ie eBay or Amazon) will release a search related innovation that blows everyone's mind, and has everyone buzzing about how it redefines what's possible in search.

  • The China question will become a critical issue to the search community. Defining the China question will in itself be a major task of 2005. How do search companies go in without being "evil"? Is the tradeoff worth it?

  • By the end of the year, there will be no question that search is a media business, and that the major players in search are major players in the content business.

  • Something major will finally happen at Tivo. We all hope that it's a sale to Apple, but if it is a sale, it will more likely be to Comcast or DirecTv.

  • All year, Apple will be rumored to launch a video iPod, but it won't - it's still too early. By the end of 2005, we will just be starting to see traction in the video over IP market and its connection to search. Google will introduce Video search at some point in 05, but it will stay in Labs.

  • Mobile will finally be plugged into the web in a way that makes sense for the average user and a major mobile innovation - the kind that makes us all say - Jeez that was obvious - will occur. At the core of this innovation will be the concept of search. The outlines of such an innovation: it'll be a way for mobile users to gather the unstructured data they leverage every day while talking on the phone and make it useful to their personal web (including email and RSS, in particular). And it will be a business that looks and feels like a Web 2.0 business - leveraging iterative web development practices, open APIs, and innovation in assembly - that makes the leap. (More on this when I start posting again).
Несколько прогнозов по веб-сервисам: http://searchwebservices.techtarget.com/originalContent/0,289142,sid26_gci1035062,00.html
Веб-дизайн: http://www.fortymedia.com/2005-web-design-forecast.fhtml
Дигитал медиа (Rex Sorgatz): http://www.fimoculous.com/archive/post-753.cfm
1) Content will continue to unbundle itself.

I have no idea what night The Apprentice airs -- I'm not even sure which network it's on. All I know is that every Friday night this past year, my friends would gather around the TiVo and lovingly poke fun at Donald Trump's hair. Whether it was iTunes or RSS or TiVo, this was the digital media lesson of '04: content has no natural brand identity. Marketers try to force "brand" on it while journalists try to force "narrative" on it, but content will continue to shed these mucky add-ons and proceed toward its natural state: pure information.

2) The line between communication and publishing will continue to be less distinct.

In the world of nano-publishing, traditional concepts like communication (one-to-one) and publishing (one-to-many) become blurry propositions. All signs point to this breakdown of public and private: websites that aggregate and organize personal content into social threads (Flickr, Bloglines, del.icio.us), private moments becoming major entertainment experiences (reality TV, celeb sex tapes), communication technologies that make online relations both more personal and more anonymous at the same time (VoIP, LiveJournal), personal media devices creating global news events (Abu Ghraib prisoner photos taken with a cell phone, tsunami video recorded on handhelds bought at Best Buy), and the rise of blogger personalities who review digital media devices next to their dating problems (ahem). What does this mean for digital media? It means the content stars of 2005 will come from the least likely places. And we all have the regrettable responsibility to act like some weird hybrid of embedded reporter and reality TV star.

3) Media will continue to be manipulated.

This might have been the biggest lesson I learned from working on NBC's website for the summer Olympics this past year: media manipulation is the message. One single piece of video, for instance, could be use for infinite purposes: online streaming, still photos, audio slideshows, images distributed to cell phones, interactive Flash apps, redistribution to TiVos, repackaging as highlight reels... the list goes on and on. In digital entertainment, some of the most exciting events this year were media manipulations: Danger Mouse's Gray Album (which was Entertainment Weekly's album of the year), Strangerhood (machinima of The Sims characters), and MTV's Video Mods (video games plus rock stars). In 2005, media hybrids will become so normative you'll hardly even think to call them that.

Ряд прогнозов по цифровым медиа, из которой был выхвачен предыдущий: http://www.paidcontent.org/contentnext/2005predics.html

Сеть просто завалена прогнозами-2005 (http://www.google.com/search?q=web+2005+predictions). Я отношусь к этим прогнозам как фиксации настоящего, а не будущего положения дел. Ибо будущее непредсказуемо, предсказания лишь отражают сегодняшнее состояние мозгов. Тем не менее, по этим коротюсеньким предсказаниям можно много быстрее разобраться, чем у людей мозги заняты, нежели штудировать кучу "просто статей" по разным темам -- по большой статье на строчку предсказания...
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